There is a growing conversation in the global energy space that the removal of China’s VAT export rebate on solar panels, alongside the gradual reduction of battery rebates, is bad news for renewable energy access. Prices are expected to rise by 10 to 15 percent this year, and many are already predicting slowed adoption across developing regions. But from where I stand, working closely with communities in Uganda and across the Rwenzori region, this interpretation feels disconnected from reality. It is not that the numbers are wrong, but that they are being read in isolation, without understanding the deeper crisis unfolding around us.
While attention is fixed on a marginal increase in solar costs, the global fossil fuel system is experiencing a shock that is far more severe, immediate, and dangerous. The disruption of oil flows through one of the world’s most critical shipping routes has triggered a ripple effect that is already being felt in East Africa. Fuel prices are rising, supply chains are tightening, and the fragility of our dependence on imported energy is once again exposed. This is not a future risk. It is happening now, and it is hitting communities that are already vulnerable.
In Uganda, we do not need theoretical models to understand what fuel disruption looks like. We have seen it before, and we are beginning to see it again. Long queues at fuel stations, transport costs rising overnight, small businesses struggling to operate, and farmers unable to access affordable energy for production and storage. These are not abstract economic indicators; they are lived realities. When fuel prices increase, everything becomes more expensive. Food, transport, healthcare, and education all become harder to access. And when supply is disrupted, even those who can afford it are not guaranteed access.
Most countries in East Africa operate with limited fuel reserves, often covering only a few weeks of demand. This means that any disruption in global supply chains immediately translates into local crises. It means that decisions made thousands of kilometres away, in geopolitical arenas we have no influence over, determine whether a boda boda rider in Kasese can earn a living, or whether a health centre can keep its lights on. That is the true cost of fossil fuel dependency, and it is far greater than any percentage increase in solar panel prices.
Yes, solar modules may become slightly more expensive in the short term. But the comparison we should be making is not between yesterday’s solar price and today’s solar price. The real comparison is between renewable energy systems and the fossil fuels they are replacing. Those fossil fuels are not only becoming more expensive, they are becoming unreliable. Their availability depends on complex global logistics, political stability, and safe passage through narrow chokepoints that can be disrupted at any moment. For countries like Uganda, this is a risk we can no longer afford to ignore.
Renewable energy offers something fundamentally different. It offers control. When a solar panel is installed on a rooftop in a rural community, it does not depend on global shipping routes or international conflicts. When a battery system is deployed in a trading centre, it stores energy that is locally generated and locally managed. When an electric motorcycle replaces a petrol-powered boda boda, it breaks the daily dependence on fuel stations and fluctuating pump prices. These are not just technological shifts; they are shifts in power, in resilience, and in dignity.
The conversation around e-mobility in Uganda is especially important in this context. Transport is one of the largest consumers of fuel in our economy, and boda bodas are the backbone of mobility for millions of people. Every electric boda boda on the road represents a reduction in fuel demand, a decrease in emissions, and an increase in income stability for riders. Instead of spending a significant portion of their earnings on fuel, riders can charge their motorcycles using electricity, increasingly generated from renewable sources. This is not only an environmental solution, it is an economic one.
In communities where we are working, the impact of decentralized renewable energy is already visible. Solar mini-grids are powering small businesses, enabling refrigeration for farmers, and supporting health facilities. Women who have been trained in solar installation are not only earning incomes but are also becoming leaders in their communities. Electric mobility pilots are showing that clean transport is not a distant dream, but a practical solution that can be scaled. These are the kinds of investments that build resilience, not just for today, but for the future.
What the current global situation reveals is that energy independence is not just about having access to energy, but about having control over it. It is about reducing exposure to external shocks and building systems that can withstand uncertainty. For Uganda, this means moving beyond a model that relies heavily on imported fuels and towards one that prioritizes locally available, renewable resources. It means investing in solar, in battery storage, in e-mobility, and in the policies that support these transitions.
The removal of export rebates in China should not discourage us. If anything, it should push us to think more strategically about how we build our energy systems. It should encourage us to explore local assembly of solar technologies, to strengthen regional supply chains, and to invest in innovation that is rooted in our context. It should also remind policymakers that short-term cost considerations must be balanced against long-term resilience and security.
Affordability is often used as the primary argument against renewable energy, but this framing is incomplete. True affordability must take into account reliability, stability, and independence. A system that is cheap but unreliable is ultimately more expensive, because it fails when it is needed most. A solar system that provides consistent power over many years, without exposure to global price shocks, is not expensive. It is an investment in stability.
As we look ahead, the choice before us is becoming clearer. We can continue to depend on a global fossil fuel system that is increasingly volatile, or we can invest in renewable energy systems that offer resilience and control. The events unfolding today are not just a temporary disruption; they are a signal of what the future may hold if we do not change course.
For Uganda, and for Africa more broadly, this is a moment to act with urgency and clarity. The transition to renewable energy and e-mobility is not just about meeting climate targets. It is about protecting our economies, empowering our communities, and securing our future. The cost of solar may rise slightly, but the cost of inaction is far greater.